A prominent investor is urging people to shift away from bonds and toward gold and Bitcoin (BTC) to shield against a potential major US debt problem.
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, made the comments in a LinkedIn post published Friday, August 21st, 2026.
He linked recent Treasury actions, including Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement of debt buybacks likely exceeding $4 billion, to a broader pattern signaling trouble ahead.
The US is spending about 40% more than it takes in, with this year’s revenue around $5.5 trillion and expenses near $7.5 trillion.
If the US government were a business, Dalio noted that debt service payments would total about $11 trillion—roughly 200% of annual revenue.
Dalio highlighted that the government’s financial condition is at an inflection point.
“I am confident that the government’s financial condition is at an inflection point. If this is not dealt with now, the debts will build up to levels where they can’t be managed without great trauma.”
He outlined a three-part approach to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP by cutting spending, raising tax revenue, and lowering interest rates, all done concurrently to avoid trauma.
“All three need to happen concurrently so as to prevent any one from being too large. If any one is too large, the adjustment will be traumatic.”
Dalio estimated a debt crisis could hit in one to five years, guessing about three years if unchanged.
“My guess, which I suppose will be a bad one, is that it will come in three years, give or take two, if the course we’re on is not changed.”
To prepare, he recommended investors stay underweight in bonds while putting as much as 10% to 15% of a portfolio in gold and holding “a bit” of Bitcoin.
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