Fresh analysis of past Bitcoin (BTC) cycles is highlighting a key technical hurdle that could confirm the current bear market has ended.
Galaxy Research says Bitcoin now trades at $78,114, already over 32% above the June 30th low, while the 50-week moving average (MA) sits at $82,470, about 6.4% overhead.
The firm tested every completed Bitcoin bear market since 2011 using a strict mechanical rule of at least 50% drawdown lasting 90 days or more.
“11 of 13 times BTCUSD reclaimed the 50w MA during completed bear markets, the bear-market low was in. It currently sits around $82k. If BTCUSD reclaims it on weekly close, history suggests the bear market would likely be over.”
Only two of those 13 reclaims failed, both during the 2021-22 period before Bitcoin dropped to $15,758.
In contrast, the faster 50-day moving average proved much noisier, with 43 of 106 reclaims failing and leading to new lows.
“A weekly reclaim of 50w MA could be strong confirmation that the current cycle low is in. Until then, the daily reclaim is encouraging but not conclusive.”
The analysis adds that even successful 50-week signals can experience whipsaws, yet Bitcoin never printed a new bear-market low after those events.
‘The May 2019 reclaim gave way to crossings around the COVID crash, but BTC never made a new 2017–18 bear-market low.
The May 2020 reclaim then held for 427 days.”
Reclaiming the 50-week average on a weekly close could provide a strong historical confirmation that the bear market low is in.
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The post Galaxy Research Analysis Flags Bitcoin 50-Week MA Reclaim as Bull Market Trigger appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
