Former BitMEX CEO and current Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes believes that a significant bullish trend in the crypto space is just a matter of time.
He predicts that increased U.S. liquidity will push BTC to over $250,000 by 2025 year-end, with Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and efforts to expand the money supply being potential catalysts.
Fed politics and Liquidity Impact Bitcoin’s rise
Hayes appears very optimistic about the future of the top digital currency by 2025. In his latest essay, he explained that a solid trend in the market could occur between late Q3 and early Q4, which would create a situation where the price of the number one crypto could rise a lot.
One of the strongest drives behind Hayes’ forecast is the anticipated growth of liquidity, particularly in the United States. A capital injection to the market could be brought about by the U.S. Treasury’s possible currency expansion program, the CIO opines. He thinks that the value of BTC would rise because of the surge in liquidity, particularly if the Federal Reserve persists in reducing interest rates.
According to him, President Donald Trump could have a significant influence on how the Federal Reserve develops in the future. He thinks Trump would try to swap out Fed members who disagree with his views with those who are more in line with his economic philosophy. This change could trigger more aggressive money production, which would increase system liquidity and strengthen assets like BTC, driving its price to new heights, including Hayes’s $250,000 target.
Historical Parallels: Lessons from World War II
The crypto entrepreneur drew an analogy between the American economy today and what existed during World War II, when yields on bonds were managed by the monetary authority to finance war spending between 1942 and 1951.
The Central Bank fixed the yields on short- and long-term Treasury bills at 0.675% and 2.5%, respectively. This allowed the government to borrow at cheap rates and distribute the money to the armaments industry.
He believes that the president’s policy team, headed by investor William “Buffalo Bill” Bessent, can follow a similar course if political pressure on the Fed increases. By cutting the interest rate on deposits and buying Treasury bonds in bulk, it could restrict yields.
The central bank’s balance sheet would rise sharply as a result, and credit availability would soar. According to Hayes, this strategy would be similar to “manipulating the yield curve” in order to direct financing toward heavy industries and defense production, potentially in support of broader geopolitical goals.
He used the Federal Reserve’s response to the COVID-19 crisis to craft his argument. At the time, the agency bought approximately 40% of all Treasury debt, and bank lending grew by around $2.5 trillion. Using that, Hayes calculated that by 2028, a yield curve program under Trump’s leadership could provide $15.2 trillion in new credit.
He linked this to Bitcoin’s historical sensitivity to credit growth. Throughout the epidemic, the price of BTC fluctuated in tandem with monetary expansion, demonstrating a roughly 0.19 link between price increases and credit growth. Based on his $15 trillion projection, Hayes used that relationship to determine that the price of the asset could rise to $3.4 million.
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