Bitcoin has frustrated traders with a sharp pullback that dragged it more than 8% down from its all-time high of $123,800 on August 13 to a recent 13-day low of $112,200 on September 22. The decline, which played out gradually over the past six weeks before accelerating into a steeper one-day slide, has sparked the loudest “buy the dip” chatter across social media in the past 25 days.
While some traders may view this surge in optimism as an early sign of a rebound, Santiment cautioned that historical patterns suggest otherwise. Prices tend to move opposite to the crowd’s expectations, and when retail traders rush to call a bottom, further downside is often necessary to flush out remaining optimism.
Deeper Correction Next?
The crypto analytics firm noted that a true market bottom typically forms only after the crowd abandons hope and begins selling at a loss, which then sets the stage for a sustainable recovery.
Santiment observed that Binance traders briefly reached their highest level of short positioning in over three months just before Bitcoin’s latest red candle, only to flip mildly long after the price drop.
For a strong upside move to materialize, the analytics firm said it would prefer to see a steady period of shorts outnumbering longs, as the eventual liquidation of these bearish bets can help fuel a rebound. Meaning, more traders need to bet against Bitcoin for the conditions of a short squeeze to develop.
Crowd sentiment has also shifted considerably in recent days. After Bitcoin slipped below $114,000, social media conversations quickly turned from euphoric to fearful, though Santiment said fear levels remain too mild to match the deep panic seen during previous market bottoms, such as the April trough tied to US tariff tensions or the mid-June decline during geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East.
A sharper spike in fear, what some traders call “blood in the streets,” would be a more reliable sign of capitulation. Despite the noisy retail reactions, key on-chain metrics are sending more constructive signals.
Santiment found that Bitcoin’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which measures the average profit or loss of short-term holders, has fallen back into negative territory for the first time since September 10. Historically, a negative MVRV indicates that recent buyers are now underwater, which creates a statistically favorable environment for accumulation because the risk of buying while others are in profit is reduced.
Meanwhile, large investors continue to quietly build their positions. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated a total of 56,372 coins since August 27. This steady accumulation by big holders often provides a floor for prices, even when retail sentiment wavers.
Pullback Appears Mild
Another supportive factor is the ongoing decline in Bitcoin supply held on exchanges. Over the past four weeks, exchange reserves have dropped by 31,265 BTC, which implies a decline in immediate selling pressure and limits the amount of coins available for rapid liquidation. This shrinking exchange balance strengthens the case for limited downside in the near term.
Santiment, hence, said that the current pullback, while frustrating for traders, is relatively modest by historical crypto standards. Bitcoin’s 8% drop from record highs pales in comparison to the 15% to 20% corrections that have typically forced capitulation during past cycles. Without a sharper drawdown or a deeper surge in fear, the conditions for a lasting bottom may not yet be in place.
The market appears to be quietly preparing for its next significant move. Retail enthusiasm to buy the dip remains a warning flag that prices could dip further.
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