While Bitcoin (BTC) continues to lose crucial support levels, an analyst has shared three possible scenarios for the flagship crypto’s upcoming performance, raising the alarm about potential early signs of a bear market.

Bitcoin Price Correction Continues

On Monday, Bitcoin reached a new multi-month low after dropping below $93,000 for the first time since May. The cryptocurrency started the week dropping nearly 5% from the $96,000 area and retesting the $91,000 level as support.

Notably, BTC has seen a 16% correction from its November opening and has lost multiple crucial levels over the past few weeks, including the $100,000 psychological barrier and the 21-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as support.

Most recently, the flagship cryptocurrency closed the week below the 50-week EMA, which has raised the alarm for several market observers.

Analyst Rekt Capital noted that losing this indicator is “not something we typically want to see if bullish Market Structure is to remain intact,” adding that “bear markets tend to confirm when price loses the key bullish levels that have supported upside momentum across the cycle.”

He explained that Bitcoin has formed clusters of lower lows at the 50-Week EMA across the cycle, which have “helped sustain a broader bullish technical uptrend.” However, BTC is currently forming another cluster below this indicator, instead of approaching the possible macro lower high developing above the 50-Week EMA.

As a result, BTC’s recent performance signals the first step of a potential breakdown, the analyst warned:

A full breakdown unfolds in three parts: first, a Weekly Close below the key level; second, a post-breakdown relief rally that turns that level into new resistance; and third, downside continuation that completes the bearish confirmation.

Early Signs Of A Bearish Trend?

Rekt Capital stressed that the 50-week EMA will be crucial in determining whether BTC’s bullish trend and tendency for “benign downside deviations” still hold.

He emphasized that if the flagship crypto fails to reclaim this indicator as support and it turns into a resistance, it could be transitioning from its downside deviation tendency to the early stages of a confirmed bearish trend.

The analyst detailed that during the early bear markets, “a Weekly Close below the 50-Week EMA is followed by several weeks of post-breakdown relief rallies into that moving average, but those attempts ultimately fail, and the EMA simply acts as resistance until downside acceleration unfolds.”

Based on this, he shared three potential outlooks for BTC’s performance. The best-case scenario for Bitcoin would be reclaiming this indicator and successfully ending this correction as a downside deviation, as it would suggest that BTC remains in a bull market.

The second-best case scenario would be that Bitcoin sees a multi-week hesitation period below the EMA as it enters the bear market, which could include a brief overextension above this level before a clearer trend resolution to the downside.

Meanwhile, the worst-case scenario would see the cryptocurrency’s price unable to retest the 50-Week EMA, even as resistance, and directly enter the downside acceleration phase.

Nonetheless, the analyst noted that, historically, the third scenario doesn’t appear as likely if we have already entered a bear market. Instead, he concluded that the recurring “relief-rally scenario” into the 50-week EMA before downside continuation seems more likely.

The Bitcoin price has seen a significant pullback, retracing nearly 26% from its all-time highs, fueling speculation about the potential onset of a new bear market. 

Compounding this uncertainty, a fresh sell signal has emerged from one of the cryptocurrency’s key indicators, reminiscent of the past when similar signals led to a staggering 67% drop in value.

Bitcoin Price Could Plunge To $31,000

Market expert Ali Martinez pointed out in a recent post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that the last time the SuperTrend indicator issued a sell signal for Bitcoin was in 2022. At that time, Bitcoin, which had reached an all-time high of $69,000, subsequently fell to around $17,000. 

While the market landscape has changed significantly since then—with the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), new digital asset treasuries (DATs), and increased institutional support spurred by pro-crypto regulations—the current situation mirrors some of those past concerns.

As it stands, the Bitcoin price is trading just above $94,500. If the historical trend of a 67% retracement were to repeat in the next months, the price could potentially fall to around $31,185, which could be the potential bottom of the new bear market. 

Adding to the conversation, another analyst known as Mr. Wall Street suggested that the recent Bitcoin price peak might be at $126,000. He forecasted that the next major downward move could see BTC hit levels between $74,000 and $82,000, ultimately reaching a target between $54,000 and $60,000 by the fourth quarter of 2026. 

This perspective contributes to the notion that Bitcoin is likely confirmed in a bear market, which could result in a year-long decline marked by price fluctuations similar to those seen in previous bear cycles.

A New Death Cross Emerges

Further complicating the outlook, analyst Doctor Profit pointed out a significant technical signal: the Bitcoin price experienced a death cross for the first time since April 2025. 

This event, marked by the 50-day moving average (MA) crossing below the 200-day moving average, historically led to rallies of 25% to 60% in the following three months. 

However, Doctor Profit emphasized a crucial difference this time around: the death cross occurred while Bitcoin was trading 6% below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50). In the previous instances, such crosses happened while Bitcoin was positioned above the EMA50, suggesting a different market sentiment this time.

The current bearish sentiment is intensified by negative trends in ETF sales and whale net volume, adding significant pressure to the Bitcoin price. 

With the average entry price for Bitcoin buyers over the past six months set at approximately $94,600, falling back toward or below this level could trigger fresh selling pressure. 

Historically, short-term traders tend to exit at breakeven or even at a slight loss, raising concerns about further declines. Doctor Profit concluded his analysis stating: 

This combination of ETF selling, whale selling, and a large cluster of sellers sitting at breakeven levels is a dangerous setup and adds to the bearish case. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio has declined into the buy territory. Here’s what followed this signal in the past.

Bitcoin SSR RSI Is Giving A Buy Signal

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) for Bitcoin. The SSR is an indicator that measures how the market cap of BTC compares against the total supply of the stablecoins.

Stablecoins refer to cryptocurrencies that are pegged to a fiat currency. Investors generally park their capital in the form of these assets when they want to avoid the volatility associated with BTC and other assets.

Such holders also usually eventually invest back into Bitcoin and company, however, exchanging away their stablecoins in favor of them once they feel the time is right. Because of this reason, the stablecoin supply is often looked at as a sort of “available buy supply” in the cryptocurrency sector.

When the value of SSR is high, it means BTC’s value is high compared to the stablecoin supply. Such a trend suggests the market stablecoin buying power is low, which could be a bearish sign.

On the other hand, the indicator being low implies the sector may have a high amount of dry powder available relative to the Bitcoin market cap, which can naturally be bullish.

Now, here is the chart for the BTC SSR shared by the analyst that shows the trend in its Relative Strength Index (RSI) over the last couple of years:

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin SSR RSI has witnessed a decline recently as the BTC spot price has crashed. This suggests that there may be a high amount of stablecoin buying power available in the market now.

The indicator’s drop has been so steep that it has entered into a zone that Maartunn has flagged as pertaining to a buy signal. From the chart, it’s apparent that past instances of this signal have often coincided with some sort of bottom or led into a price surge.

In a lot of the instances, however, the signal has only resulted in a temporary reversal. It now remains to be seen whether any bullish shift will follow the latest signal, and if one does, whether it will be lasting.

In some other news, a large movement involving dormant tokens has just occurred on the Bitcoin network, as Maartunn has pointed out in another X post.

“4,668 $BTC aged 3–5 years were just spent — a clear spike in dormant supply activation,” noted the analyst. Movement from dormant hands is often a sign of selling.

BTC Price

Bearish momentum hasn’t shown any signs of stopping for Bitcoin as its price has now dropped to the $92,500 level.

Bitcoin price failed to recover above $95,000. BTC is down over 4% and there are chances of more downsides below $90,000.

• Bitcoin started a fresh decline below $94,000 and $93,500.
• The price is trading below $93,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $95,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might continue to move down if it settles below the $91,500 zone.

Bitcoin Price Continues To Weaken

Bitcoin price failed to stay in a positive zone above the $93,500 pivot level. BTC bears remained active below $93,500 and pushed the price lower.

The bears gained strength and were able to push the price below the $92,000 zone. A low was formed at $90,700 and the price is now showing bearish signs below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $95,888 swing high to the $90,700 low.

Bitcoin is now trading below $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $95,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

If the bulls attempt another recovery wave, the price could face resistance near the $92,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $93,250 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $95,888 swing high to the $90,700 low.

The next resistance could be $93,800. A close above the $93,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $94,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $95,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $95,800 and $96,500.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $93,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $90,800 level. The first major support is near the $90,500 level.

The next support is now near the $90,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $88,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $86,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $90,500, followed by $90,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $92,500 and $95,800.