The broader cryptocurrency market has been on an upward trajectory over the past few weeks, partly driven by improving global macroeconomic conditions. Recent policy shifts between the United States and China, two of the world’s largest economies, have helped fuel investor sentiment.

Both countries have agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs: the US cut rates from 145% to 30%, while China lowered its own from 125% to 10%, each over 90 days. These decisions have been interpreted by some as a step toward easing global trade tensions, supporting risk-on assets such as Bitcoin.

In response to the broader bullish environment, Bitcoin has seen a steady rise, currently trading at $106,574, up 1.7% in the last 24 hours. The price earlier reached a 24-hour high of $107,844 before retreating slightly.

Despite the pullback, Bitcoin remains just 2% below its all-time high of $109,000, recorded in January 2025. The consistent climb has led analysts and traders to monitor on-chain metrics more closely to gauge market behavior and possible future movements.

Realized Capitalization Surges as Accumulation Phase Strengthens

A recent analysis from CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Alemán has brought attention to Bitcoin’s realized capitalization, a metric that measures the total value of Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain.

According to Alemán, the realized cap jumped by more than $3 billion in a single day, marking a 0.33% increase in the total capital invested in Bitcoin. This significant uptick signals renewed capital inflows, and more importantly, it points to a recurring pattern of accumulation and consolidation.

Alemán identified a repeating cycle beginning in April, where Bitcoin has shown sharp price increases followed by sideways movements lasting 8 to 10 days. These lateral phases, supported by rising realized cap, form a staircase-like chart structure with each step building upon the previous one.

From an on-chain perspective, the steady climb in realized cap suggests buyers are entering the market at higher levels, lifting the network’s aggregate cost basis and demonstrating long-term confidence in the asset.

On-Chain Trends Suggest Investors Are Positioning for Continuation

Alemán also highlighted that the behavior of realized capitalization in the current market mirrors patterns seen in previous bull cycles. Historically, spikes in this metric during consolidation phases have preceded large-scale price movements.

The current rise indicates that capital entering the market is doing so with a long-term view, rather than speculative short-term intent. This positions the market for a potential continuation, especially as accumulation appears to intensify around the psychological $106,000–$109,000 range.

The analyst concluded that tracking realized cap in the days ahead will be essential to confirm whether the current phase evolves into another upward price impulse. If the trend persists, it could support another leg higher, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin remains in a broader accumulation structure.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase and traded to a new all-time high above the $109,000 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for an increase toward $112,000

• Bitcoin started a fresh upward move from the $106,000 zone.
• The price is trading above $107,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $107,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair could gain bullish momentum if it clears the $110,850 resistance.

Bitcoin Price Sets New ATH

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase from the $104,200 support zone. BTC formed a base and was able to clear the $106,000 resistance zone. The bulls pushed the price above $107,500.

The bulls even pumped the price above the $109,000 resistance zone. The price traded to a new all-time high near $110,698 and is currently consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $104,270 swing low to the $110,698 high.

Bitcoin is now trading above $108,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $107,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $110,850 level. The first key resistance is near the $112,000 level. The next key resistance could be $112,500. A close above the $112,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $113,800 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $115,000 level.

Are Dips Limited In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $112,000 resistance zone, it could start another correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $109,000 level. The first major support is near the $107,500 level, the trend line, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $104,270 swing low to the $110,698 high.

The next support is now near the $106,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $105,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $104,200, below which BTC might gain bearish momentum.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $109,000, followed by $107,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $110,850 and $112,000.

Japan’s government-bond complex, once the benchmark for low-yield stability, is cracking under the weight of its own arithmetic—and the fissures are sending tremors straight into the global debate about Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Thirty-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields catapulted to 3.15% this week, eclipsing every prior high since the tenor’s 1999 debut.

That print triggered an instant warning from the markets newsletter The Kobeissi Letter: “Japan’s bond market is imploding… Japan’s 30Y Government Bond Yield has officially surged to its highest level in history, at 3.15%. For decades, Japan was known for low long-term interest rates. Now they are dealing with high inflation, shifting policy outlook, and a whopping 260% Debt-to-GDP ratio.”

Liquidity, always fragile at the long end of Tokyo’s curve, vanished just hours later. From New York, Zerohedge relayed traders’ disbelief: “This is unbelievable: for the second day in a row, Japan’s bond market is bidless, with both 30Y and 40Y JGB yields at record highs. Meanwhile, as the world’s 2nd biggest bond market is imploding, the BOJ is pretending nothing is happening.”

Inside the Diet, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba delivered a stark political gloss: Japan’s fiscal plight, he conceded, is now “worse than Greece,” a phrase that would have been unthinkable during the deflationary 2010s. That assessment lands just as gross public debt pushes toward 260% of GDP and as Japanese investors—who still hold roughly $1.1 trillion of US Treasuries—contemplate selling overseas paper to shore up domestic books.

Why This Is Ultra-Bullish For Bitcoin

For Bitcoin analysts, the chain of causality is brutally clear. Pseudonymous macro voice Stack Hodler wrote to his followers: “Everyone expects Yield Curve Control. But Japan already tried YCC and look at what it got them—a spectacular bond-market implosion happening right in front of us. Now every Japanese bank, pension fund, and insurance company that trusted the Bank of Japan is holding a massive bag of flaming excrement… If this is the end result of YCC, why would any rational investor hold sovereign debt from severely indebted nations? Central-bank credibility is shattering in real time. Scarce neutral reserve assets—Bitcoin and gold—need to be repriced dramatically higher.”

Dan Tapiero, founder of the $3.9 billion digital-asset vehicle 10T Holdings, reached much the same conclusion in fewer words: “Quietly…and off the radar…the Japanese long-bond yields are going parabolic. Time to watch Japan…Unsustainable deficits have been the norm for 30 yrs…Now a problem. Very bullish gold and Bitcoin.”

The systemic-risk argument tightens further when one zooms out to the global balance sheet. Author Bruce Florian frames the macro math as musical chairs with a finite number of safe havens: “There are three times more debts than GDP, and interest rates are twice as high as economic growth… It’s like a game of musical chairs.

Everyone knows there are fewer chairs than players.” Florian highlights the feedback loop linking Tokyo and Washington: “The biggest buyer of US debt has been Japan… But this customer is now in financial trouble… There’s a high chance Japan will sell some of these bonds to stabilize its own situation… In a year when the USA needs to refinance $8 trillion, what happens if no buyers show up? The Fed will monetize the debt.” The punch line, he insists, is Bitcoin: “Bitcoin is shifting from a ‘nice-to-have’ asset to a must-have asset… In a world of unlimited debt, scarcity is the most radical form of reason.”

Wall Street heavyweights are edging toward the same territory. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon told investors on Monday, “I’m not a buyer of bonds. The risks are too high.” Ray Dalio wrote that the greater default risk now lies in “currency debasement,” not in missed coupons. And Larry Fink, whose firm’s spot-Bitcoin ETF has absorbed more than $31 billion since January, said on Fox Business that Bitcoin is “an international asset” fit for times when “countries devalue their currencies.”

BTC Price Responds

Bitcoin’s price action is responding in real time. BTC rose to $107,322 at press time, less than 4% shy of its halving-cycle high. None of this proves that Bitcoin is destined to replace sovereign debt, but the directional shift in marginal flows is no longer hypothetical. When the second-largest bond market on earth shows two consecutive bidless sessions and its prime minister compares the country to Greece, capital chases the assets whose supply cannot be printed. Bitcoin, engineered for hard-cap scarcity, slots neatly into that vacuum.

Whether this is the moment sovereign debt loses the mantle of “risk-free” remains to be seen. What is indisputable is that the implosion of Japan’s ultra-long JGBs has handed Bitcoin its clearest macro tail-wind since 2020’s pandemic-era liquidity flood—except this time the narrative is not emergency stimulus but the dawning realization that even advanced nations are running out of balance-sheet room. For a growing cohort of investors, the word bond is beginning to rhyme less with safety and more with risk, while Bitcoin is rhyming—loudly—with insurance.

Having surged about 22.5% over the past 30 days, Bitcoin (BTC) has sparked concerns in the crypto market that its rally may be nearing exhaustion, with a potential price correction on the horizon. However, the latest on-chain data reveals that despite elevated unrealized profits, there are still no signs of increased selling pressure for the leading cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin Unrealized Profits Remain High But No Panic Selling Yet

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by Bitcoin analyst Crazzyblockk, the cohort of new investors – those who have held BTC for less than one month – is currently sitting on unrealized profits of 6.9%.

In the same vein, short-term investors – holders who have held Bitcoin for less than six months – are sitting on unrealized profits of 10.7%. These figures highlight that the unrealized profit/loss ratio remains elevated, with unrealized profits far outweighing unrealized losses.

Crazzyblockk noted that while historically, a high percentage of unrealized profits across the network tends to precede sharp price corrections, the current setup appears different. They added:

Past cycles have shown that extreme profit concentration tends to precede volatility; however, current market structure shows no outsized concentration of risk in one participant group.

The relatively narrow spread in unrealized profits between new and short-term holders indicates that profit distribution is balanced. Furthermore, although profit levels are high, loss levels remain compressed, suggesting limited pressure from distressed sellers. The contributor remarked:

While macro conditions and volatility risk remain elevated, and a price correction cannot be ruled out, there is no strong behavioral signal suggesting a high willingness to trigger major distribution or selling.

Further Upside For BTC?

Meanwhile, seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently predicted further upside for Bitcoin. In a post on X, Martinez noted that BTC has undergone another bullish breakout, with the potential to reach a new all-time high (ATH) around $111,500.

The current momentum has also drawn in retail investors. According to CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Aleman, wallets holding less than $10,000 worth of BTC are steadily returning to the market – a sign of growing retail participation.

That said, some warning signs may still dampen BTC’s current bullish trajectory. For instance, despite the recent encouraging price action, Bitcoin’s Demand Momentum remains subdued. 

Similarly, Bitcoin’s “supply scarcity” narrative still lacks meaningful strength, as Aleman recently stressed that despite depleting exchange reserves, BTC is not likely to face genuine supply scarcity in the near term. At press time, BTC trades at $106,528, up 1.8% in the past 24 hours.

The chief executive of crypto asset manager Galaxy Digital says America’s current financial situation is bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto.

In a new interview with Bloomberg, Novogratz says that many factors have contributed to the rise of digital assets, including President Donald Trump and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s embrace of the sector.

“It started with Larry Fink. When he got orange-pilled, the largest asset manager in the world said ‘this is a real asset,’ at least Bitcoin, that everyone should be a part of and lots of other companies… followed suit.

And that was kind of round one of institutions coming in. But really it was the shift of approach from the Gary Gensler SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) to this Trump Administration which has just embraced our industry, and that freed up the animal spirit, both here and abroad.”

However, Novogratz goes on to say that America’s current uncertain fiscal situation is ultimately good for the top crypto asset by market cap and the digital assets industry in general. He says the Trump administration’s failure to significantly lower the debt-to-GDP ratio has been a boon for the asset class.

“We’re in a really hard position as a country… We have this kind of debt, yield curves are selling off everywhere, the dollar is under pressure, and that all is very good for Bitcoin and crypto assets as well.”

BTC is trading for $108,961 at time of writing, just below a new all-time high.

Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram

Don’t Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox

Check Price Action

Surf The Daily Hodl Mix

Featured Image: Shutterstock/WhiteBarbie/mim.girl

The post Mike Novogratz Says Weakening Dollar, Widening Deficit and America’s Deteriorating Financial Situation ‘Very Good’ for Bitcoin and Crypto appeared first on The Daily Hodl.