{"id":51176,"date":"2026-09-16T06:54:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T06:54:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=51176"},"modified":"2026-09-16T06:54:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T06:54:13","slug":"fomc-decision-today-markets-price-92-odds-of-a-hike-to-3-75-4-00","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=51176","title":{"rendered":"FOMC Decision Today: Markets Price 92% Odds of a Hike to 3.75% \u2013 4.00%"},"content":{"rendered":"

The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to drop its interest rate decision today at 2 p.m. ET, and the market has already made up its mind. According to the CME FedWatch tool<\/a>, the probability of a 25 basis point hike to 3.75% to 4.00% stands at 92.3%. A rate hike today would mark the first one since 2023.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

A month ago, these forecasts were completely different. Around 36% of the market was expecting a hike heading into Jackson Hole. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh changed that when he said inflation had not \u201cmeaningfully improved\u201d which put the odds past 50% in days. August\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report settled any sort of debate and the expectations of a rate hike skyrocketed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

August Inflation Came in Hot and Energy Did the Damage<\/h2>\n

Core CPI expectations coming into August were for a 0.2% month over month increase, but it rose to 0.3%. Meanwhile headline inflation held at 3.4% year over year which remains nowhere near the Fed\u2019s target of 2%. The national average gas prices have shot up around 36% in a year according to data from AAA fuel prices<\/a>. Crude is back above the $100 mark as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to strangle shipping flows out of the Iran conflict.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

Then came the labour data which gives policymakers no excuse to wait. Payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August and The Bureau of Labor Statistics puts unemployment at 4.1%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

Crypto Walked Into Today Already Bruised<\/h2>\n

Total crypto market cap fell by around 3.3% on Tuesday, September 15. Bitcoin broke below $76K marking its lowest level since August 21. Coinglass data shows that over $545 million worth of long positions were liquidated yesterday on the way down.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The interest rate expectations is only one reason for this drawdown. The CLARITY Act failed a cloture vote 49 to 50 in the Senate<\/a> yesterday, leaving the market structure bill stuck and removing the one near term catalyst traders had been leaning on. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bled $462.73 million last week, a sharp reversal after pulling in $3.52 billion across August.<\/p>\n

Positioning going into a rate decision is rarely this one sided. Leverage got cleared out before the event rather than during it, which at least means fewer forced sellers if the announcement lands badly.<\/p>\n

The Hike Is Priced, so the Volatility Lives Elsewhere<\/h2>\n

With 25 basis points fully discounted, the decision itself is close to a non event. What moves price is the paperwork around it.<\/p>\n

The updated dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will show whether this is a one off adjustment to an energy shock or the start of a tightening sequence. The dissent count matters just as much. A unanimous hike reads very differently from a 9 to 3 split with governors pushing back on the inflation read.<\/p>\n

Then comes Warsh at 2:30 p.m. ET. Traders will be listening for one thing above everything else: whether December is live. Any suggestion that the Fed sees a second hike before year end would hit risk assets harder than today\u2019s move ever could.<\/p>\n

$70,000 is the level traders are watching<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s next real test sits at $70,000. The level carries weight beyond the round number. It overlaps with a dense cluster of prior price action going back through this cycle and lines up with the 200-day moving average, a line that has flipped from resistance to support and back again several times over the past two years.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

Holding above it keeps the current structure intact. Losing it on a daily close with ETF outflows still running would open up a much wider range below.<\/p>\n

\n<\/p>

If you’re reading this, you\u2019re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to drop its interest rate decision today at 2 p.m. ET, and the market has already made up its mind. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point hike to 3.75% to 4.00% stands at 92.3%. A rate hike today would mark […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51177,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nFOMC Decision Today: Markets Price 92% Odds of a Hike to 3.75% \u2013 4.00% - Cryptomag<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=51176\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FOMC Decision Today: Markets Price 92% Odds of a Hike to 3.75% \u2013 4.00% - Cryptomag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) is about to drop its interest rate decision today at 2 p.m. ET, and the market has already made up its mind. 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