{"id":50689,"date":"2026-09-07T22:47:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T22:47:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=50689"},"modified":"2026-09-07T22:47:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T22:47:29","slug":"two-factors-could-break-bitcoin-btc-out-of-range-trading-as-chances-of-fed-rate-hike-next-week-hover-around-60-coinshares","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=50689","title":{"rendered":"Two Factors Could Break Bitcoin (BTC) out of Range Trading As Chances of Fed Rate Hike Next Week Hover Around 60%: CoinShares"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) is once again trading like gold as investors hedge against potential inflation, according to new analysis from the digital asset management firm CoinShares.<\/p>\n

James Butterfill, CoinShares\u2019 head of research, notes<\/a> that dueling speeches from Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh and Fed governor Christopher Waller left different impressions about the possibility of a September rate hike.<\/p>\n

\u201cKevin Warsh\u2019s comments on Friday were read as hawkish, with a clear emphasis on inflation rather than the weakening employment picture, and markets moved towards pricing roughly a two-thirds probability of a September rate hike. Waller subsequently pushed back against that interpretation, arguing that recent inflation data show encouraging signs of disinflation and indicating that, provided August inflation confirms the trend, he would favour keeping rates unchanged in September. His comments helped ease Treasury yields and supported Bitcoin\u2019s move above US$80k.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

We think the market\u2019s pricing of a September hike still looks too aggressive, particularly given softer labour data and the divergence now emerging within the Fed over how much weight to place on inflation versus employment.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The CME FedWatch Tool, which generates probabilities using the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices, currently\u00a0estimates<\/a> a 60.4% chance that the Fed will hike the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points at next week\u2019s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.<\/p>\n

Butterfill says two factors could drive Bitcoin higher amid the monetary policy uncertainty.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor Bitcoin to move convincingly through US$80k, we think one of two things needs to happen: a resolution of the Iran conflict that lowers inflation and rate expectations, or a further deterioration in confidence in US sovereign debt that accelerates demand for non-sovereign stores of value. Until one arrives, range trading remains the more likely outcome.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Two dates carry most of the information from here. The August inflation print will tell us whether Waller\u2019s disinflation case holds, and the September meeting will show whether the Fed\u2019s internal split resolves towards inflation or employment. Everything else is noise around those two.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Bitcoin is trading at $79,337 at time of writing.<\/p>\n

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any assets including cryptocurrencies, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.<\/h6>\n<\/div>\n

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The post Two Factors Could Break Bitcoin (BTC) out of Range Trading As Chances of Fed Rate Hike Next Week Hover Around 60%: CoinShares<\/a> appeared first on The Daily Hodl<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again trading like gold as investors hedge against potential inflation, according to new analysis from the digital asset management firm CoinShares. James Butterfill, CoinShares\u2019 head of research, notes that dueling speeches from Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh and Fed governor Christopher Waller left different impressions about the possibility of a September […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":50690,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin"],"yoast_head":"\nTwo Factors Could Break Bitcoin (BTC) out of Range Trading As Chances of Fed Rate Hike Next Week Hover Around 60%: CoinShares - Cryptomag<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=50689\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Two Factors Could Break Bitcoin (BTC) out of Range Trading As Chances of Fed Rate Hike Next Week Hover Around 60%: CoinShares - Cryptomag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin (BTC) is once again trading like gold as investors hedge against potential inflation, according to new analysis from the digital asset management firm CoinShares. 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