{"id":49718,"date":"2026-08-18T18:05:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T18:05:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=49718"},"modified":"2026-08-18T18:05:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T18:05:17","slug":"prediction-markets-assign-67-71-odds-to-fed-holding-rates-steady-in-september","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=49718","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Markets Assign 67-71% Odds to Fed Holding Rates Steady in September"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Prediction markets are converging on strong odds the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting.<\/p>\n

Traders on Kalshi and Myriad see the central bank holding its target rate range at 3.50%-3.75% when policymakers meet on September 15th-16th.<\/p>\n

The US-based prediction platform Kalshi<\/a> prices the no-change outcome at 67%, with a 31% chance of a 25 basis point hike and just a 2% chance for a cut.<\/p>\n

Myriad shows 71% for no change, 30% for a 25 basis point increase and 3% each for larger moves in either direction.<\/p>\n

These market readings track closely with a fresh Reuters poll<\/a> of 104 economists.<\/p>\n

Ninety-four respondents, or 90%, expect rates to stay on hold at the September meeting, while 80 anticipate no shifts through year-end.<\/p>\n

The consensus follows July\u2019s weaker-than-expected jobs report, cooler consumer inflation, and softer retail sales, which have tilted sentiment toward a wait-and-see stance.<\/p>\n

Says Ryan Wang, US economist at HSBC,<\/p>\n

\u201cThe debate clearly is about the possibility of rate hikes. We\u2019ve gone through the July inflation numbers, and they were basically neutral. On the activity side the very latest data do show some softening. That could push more FOMC policymakers into the wait-and-see camp rather than in the immediate rate hike camp.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

However, Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, believes the outcome will hinge on inflation.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe FOMC\u2019s debate next month will come down entirely to the inflation outlook\u2026 As things currently stand, I still expect the FOMC to tighten next month.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Economists in the poll project PCE inflation averaging 3.5% this year and staying above the 2% target at least through 2028.<\/p>\n

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The post Prediction Markets Assign 67-71% Odds to Fed Holding Rates Steady in September<\/a> appeared first on The Daily Hodl<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prediction markets are converging on strong odds the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. Traders on Kalshi and Myriad see the central bank holding its target rate range at 3.50%-3.75% when policymakers meet on September 15th-16th. The US-based prediction platform Kalshi prices the no-change outcome at 67%, with a 31% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49719,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nPrediction Markets Assign 67-71% Odds to Fed Holding Rates Steady in September - Cryptomag<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=49718\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prediction Markets Assign 67-71% Odds to Fed Holding Rates Steady in September - Cryptomag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prediction markets are converging on strong odds the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. 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