{"id":41965,"date":"2026-04-24T05:00:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T05:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=41965"},"modified":"2026-04-24T05:00:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T05:00:10","slug":"bitcoin-enters-disbelief-phase-as-traders-keep-shorting-the-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=41965","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s advance over the past four weeks is colliding with a derivatives market that still looks positioned for weakness. Analysts tracking Binance funding and futures basis say traders continue to lean short even as BTC moves higher, creating what CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost described<\/a> via X as a \u201cphase of disbelief\u201d rather than a clean bullish reset.<\/p>\n

That divergence matters because it suggests the rally is unfolding against persistent skepticism, not broad conviction. In crypto, that kind of setup can cut both ways: it can signal fragile market structure, but it can also provide fuel if bearish positioning is forced to unwind.<\/p>\n

Darkfost pointed to the 30-day cumulative evolution of Binance funding rates as the clearest sign that the market remains out of sync with price. \u201cWe\u2019ve been hearing a lot about funding rates lately, as they remain negative even while Bitcoin continues to move higher,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis chart offers a different perspective from what is usually observed. It shows the 30 day cumulative evolution of funding rates on Binance, making it easier to clearly identify when funding entered a sustained negative trend.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

His comparison was to late 2022, when Bitcoin was beginning to emerge from the bear market. At that point, Binance funding rates kept falling and reached as low as -7% on a 30-day cumulative basis. Today, the same indicator sits around -4.5%, which, in his view, shows how aggressively traders have continued betting against the move in recent months.<\/p>\n

Darkfost\u2019s argument is not simply that funding is negative, but that the persistence of that negativity reflects a market still trying to fade price strength. \u201cEach time such a strong consensus has formed, it has instead helped create a bottom and fueled the rally that was beginning to develop,\u201d he said. \u201cAs I mentioned several days ago, the market has entered a phase of disbelief<\/a>, where traders still prefer fighting the trend rather than following it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Derivatives Market In A Regime Of Caution<\/h2>\n

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. approached the same backdrop from a more defensive angle. In his April 23 market note<\/a>, he argued that Bitcoin\u2019s derivatives structure is \u201crapidly losing its bullish structure\u201d as the short-term futures premium over spot nearly disappears. The 7-day basis SMA dropped from +0.465% to +0.054% in just four days, while the funding rate 7DMA remained negative at -0.00945%.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

For Adler, the message is straightforward: the market is no longer willing to pay up for long leverage<\/a>. \u201cBasis 7D SMA has sharply compressed and is almost at zero, showing that the futures premium over spot has nearly vanished,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is not just a local cooldown \u2013 it is nearly a complete disappearance of the futures premium over spot. Meanwhile, the 30D SMA remains noticeably higher, around +0.41%, meaning the short-term derivatives structure has deteriorated much faster than the medium-term norm.\u201d<\/p>\n

He made a similar point on funding. \u201cWhat matters is not just the negative reading itself, but its persistence,\u201d Adler said. \u201cThis is not a one-off spike or a panic anomaly within a single hour. This is a steady accumulation<\/a> of bearish positioning, where the market continues to pay for short exposure.\u201d<\/p>\n

Taken together, the two analysts are reading the same data through slightly different lenses. Darkfost sees disbelief as a potentially constructive condition for the ongoing rally, especially if consensus remains heavily skewed against price. Adler sees a market that has lost its bullish premium and is shifting into a more cautious regime unless basis and funding recover.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $77,836.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s advance over the past four weeks is colliding with a derivatives market that still looks positioned for weakness. Analysts tracking Binance funding and futures basis say traders continue to lean short even as BTC moves higher, creating what CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost described via X as a \u201cphase of disbelief\u201d rather than a clean bullish […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41966,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-41965","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin"},"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally - Cryptomag<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=41965\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin Enters Disbelief Phase As Traders Keep Shorting The Rally - Cryptomag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s advance over the past four weeks is colliding with a derivatives market that still looks positioned for weakness. 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