{"id":41874,"date":"2026-04-23T10:00:40","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T10:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=41874"},"modified":"2026-04-23T10:00:40","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T10:00:40","slug":"next-big-bitcoin-move-may-defy-everything-traders-expect-says-expert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=41874","title":{"rendered":"Next Big Bitcoin Move May Defy Everything Traders Expect, Says Expert"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin Magazine Pro lead analyst Matt Crosby says traders relying on Bitcoin\u2019s traditional four-year cycle may be leaning on a framework that no longer fits the market. In his latest analysis, Crosby argued that structural shifts in supply, institutional demand and macro liquidity now matter more than the old halving-driven playbook.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin\u2019s Old Cycle Playbook Is Breaking Down<\/h2>\n<p>Crosby\u2019s core <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BitcoinMagPro\/status\/2046995445944095058\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">claim<\/a> is straightforward: Bitcoin may already be trading in a different regime. Pointing to the fact that more than 20 million BTC are now in circulation, he said over 95% of the total eventual supply has already been issued, reducing the relative shock value of each new halving. Historically, halvings cut Bitcoin\u2019s inflation rate in half and helped shape a familiar pattern of post-halving rallies, then drawdowns and recovery into the next cycle. Crosby said that pattern may now be losing force.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMany people are looking towards the previous cycles as a potential for what Bitcoin will do this time,\u201d he said. \u201cWe can\u2019t bottom out anytime soon. We need to wait until at least a year has passed from that peak, because that\u2019s what we\u2019ve always done.\u201d Crosby pushed back on that logic, adding that he has \u201cconcrete evidence\u201d for why the old cycle should no longer be treated as the base case.<\/p>\n<p>Much of that evidence, in his view, comes from demand. Crosby highlighted the scale of accumulation now coming from large treasury buyers and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-etfs-1-32b-inflows-eth-xrp-funds-bleed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">spot Bitcoin ETFs<\/a>, saying <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/news\/bitcoin\/strategy-blackrock-bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Strategy alone has been acquiring<\/a> more than 1,000 BTC per day, or roughly two to three times Bitcoin\u2019s daily inflation rate. He also pointed to a recent day in which spot ETFs bought nearly $750 million worth of Bitcoin. That kind of persistent demand, he argued, is materially different from the market structure seen in earlier cycles.<\/p>\n<p>Rather than anchoring on calendar-based cycle models or seasonality, Crosby said investors should watch liquidity and broader macro conditions. He cited a 96.26% long-term correlation between the S&amp;P 500 and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/bitcoin-news\/can-bitcoin-still-hit-140000\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">global M2 liquidity<\/a>, along with a 93% correlation between Bitcoin and the S&amp;P over 15 years on a monthly basis. Bitcoin itself, he said, shows an 85% correlation to global liquidity, reinforcing the idea that liquidity expansion and contraction remain the dominant force behind major moves.<\/p>\n<p>Crosby also challenged the usefulness of election-cycle seasonality. While Bitcoin\u2019s midterm years have sometimes posted strong average returns, he noted that median returns are negative and that the sample size remains thin. Gold and equities, by contrast, do not show the same kind of clean political-cycle pattern. For Crosby, that makes seasonality a weak foundation for market calls.<\/p>\n<p>He also argued that Bitcoin looks different when measured against gold rather than the US dollar. On that basis, he said, Bitcoin may have topped in late 2024 and already spent more than a year in a relative bear phase, potentially bottoming around February 2026. That, he suggested, is another sign the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/news\/bitcoin\/bitcoin-4-year-cycle-is-dead-crypto-trader-explains-what-happens-next\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">classic four-year cycle<\/a> has already begun to break down.<\/p>\n<p>The more actionable signals, Crosby said, are coming from on-chain and macro indicators. He pointed to Coin Days Destroyed and Value Days Destroyed as tools that have historically flagged major tops and attractive accumulation zones, and said Bitcoin has recently re-entered an area that previously aligned with undervaluation. At the same time, he noted that US consumer sentiment in April 2026 fell to 47.6%, which he described as the lowest reading on record, while manufacturing expectations and liquidity conditions have started to improve.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAt some point, it\u2019s inevitable this four-year cycle is going to break,\u201d Crosby said. \u201cWe are seeing fresh liquidity entering the system. We are seeing the S&amp;P 500 rally. We are seeing more positivity in manufacturing outlooks, and we are seeing incredible negativity, not just in Bitcoin, but in sentiment across equity markets as well.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>His conclusion was not that risk has disappeared. It was that the market may no longer reward waiting for an \u201carbitrary date on a calendar.\u201d If Crosby is right, the next big Bitcoin move will be shaped less by inherited cycle lore and more by the harder forces of liquidity, positioning and sustained institutional demand.<\/p>\n<p>At press time, BTC traded at $78,144.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-892921\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/BTCUSDT_2026-04-23_09-02-23.png?resize=1024%2C502\" alt=\"Bitcoin price chart\" width=\"1024\" height=\"502\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin Magazine Pro lead analyst Matt Crosby says traders relying on Bitcoin\u2019s traditional four-year cycle may be leaning on a framework that no longer fits the market. In his latest analysis, Crosby argued that structural shifts in supply, institutional demand and macro liquidity now matter more than the old halving-driven playbook. Bitcoin\u2019s Old Cycle Playbook [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41875,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-41874","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Next Big Bitcoin Move May Defy Everything Traders Expect, Says Expert - Cryptomag<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=41874\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Next Big Bitcoin Move May Defy Everything Traders Expect, Says Expert - Cryptomag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin Magazine Pro lead analyst Matt Crosby says traders relying on Bitcoin\u2019s traditional four-year cycle may be leaning on a framework that no longer fits the market. 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