Most blockchains and cryptocurrencies protect wallets and transactions using 256\u2011bit elliptic curve cryptography (a very strong mathematical lock) based on the discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP\u2011256). The research points at a significant decreased in the resources needed to break the ECDLP-256. The blog post says:<\/p>\n
\nWe estimate that these circuits can be executed on a superconducting qubit CRQC with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits in a few minutes, given standard assumptions about hardware capabilities that are consistent with some of Google\u2019s flagship quantum processors. This is an approximately 20-fold reduction in the number of physical qubits required to solve ECDLP-256 and a continuation of a long history of gradual optimization in compiling quantum algorithms to fault-tolerant circuits.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\u201cCryptographically-relevant quantum computers (CRQS) pose a threat to widely deployed public-key cryptography\u201d, the whitepaper claims. Instead of attacking wallets, the research models a live attack where a quantum adversary could steal bitcoin mid\u2011transaction in about 9 minutes by quickly using the briefly revealed public key to calculate the private key, giving a 41% chance of beating Bitcoin\u2019s 10\u2011minute block time. In this sense, Ethereum might be less vulnerable than Bitcoin, as it confirms its transactions faster.<\/p>\n
The Culprit: Taproot<\/p>\n
This results put Taproot, Bitcoin\u2019s 2021 upgrade, in a different perspective. Although Taproot boosted privacy and efficiency, it started exposing public keys on\u2011chain by default, stripping away the \u201chash-first\u201d protective layer that older address formats had. Therefore, it has widened the pool of quantum\u2011exposed coins to about 6.9 million BTC, including Satoshi\u2011era and heavily reused addresses.<\/p>\n
A quantum computer is a computer that uses the rules of quantum physics to process information in ways normal computers can\u2019t. Instead of bits that are either 0 or 1, it uses qubits, which can be 0, 1, or a blend of both at the same time, letting the machine explore many possibilities in parallel. Classical computers explore possibilities one\u2011by\u2011one (even if very fast). This means that, for certain math problems (like factoring huge numbers used in cryptography), a powerful quantum computer could solve in minutes what would take a classical supercomputer longer than the age of the universe.<\/p>\n
What This Means For Concerned Traders<\/p>\n
Despite it is true that no such machine exists yet, earlier this month Google set 2029 as an internal deadline for post\u2011quantum migration<\/a>, compressing the perceived timeline for \u201cQ\u2011day.\u201d Researchers warn that post-quantum migration will take years, even if the hardware is not here yet.<\/p>\n
On the social network X, some users have already expressed their quantum panic. Coin Metric co-founder and Bitcoin advocate Nic Carter highlighted another paper released today from Oratomic, Caltech and UC Berkeley, showing quantum computers can break crypto with just 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits.<\/p>\n
\nand the craziest thing is that the Google Quantum AI paper (above) is maybe not even the most concerning quantum paper released _today_https:\/\/t.co\/mSZi5Lk7do<\/a><\/p>\n
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