{"id":37838,"date":"2026-03-11T14:00:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=37838"},"modified":"2026-03-11T14:00:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T14:00:14","slug":"bitcoin-down-44-from-its-peak-but-bitwise-still-sees-a-path-to-1-million","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=37838","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Down 44% From Its Peak, But Bitwise Still Sees A Path To $1 Million"},"content":{"rendered":"

Central banks aren\u2019t buying it. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio doesn\u2019t trust it as a safe haven. And Bitcoin is trading 44% below its October peak while gold sits near all-time highs.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the backdrop against which Bitwise Asset Management\u2019s chief investment officer is making the case that Bitcoin<\/a> could still reach $1 million a coin within a decade.<\/p>\n

A Different Way To Run The Numbers<\/h2>\n

Most people who shoot down the $1 million forecast do so by pointing out what it would take for Bitcoin to swallow up half of gold\u2019s current market value.<\/p>\n

Matt Hougan says that\u2019s the wrong calculation. According to Hougan, the error is treating gold\u2019s market cap as a fixed number rather than a moving one.<\/p>\n

Gold<\/a> has grown at roughly 13% annually since 2004, climbing from $2.5 trillion to around $38 trillion \u2014 driven by rising government debt concerns, geopolitical tension, and loose monetary policy.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Hougan projects that if gold\u2019s trajectory holds, the broader store-of-value market will reach around $121 trillion within 10 years.<\/p>\n

At that scale, Bitcoin would only need to capture 17% of the total \u2014 about one-sixth \u2014 to be worth $1 million per coin.<\/a> That\u2019s a notably different ask than the 50% figure critics typically cite.<\/p>\n

Hougan also pointed to institutional investment as a driver. Exchange-traded funds, sovereign wealth funds, and growing portfolio allocations are all being cited as forces that could push Bitcoin\u2019s market share higher over the next decade.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are still miles to go,\u201d he wrote in a blog post, \u201cbut capturing a sixth of the store-of-value market in 10 years doesn\u2019t seem extreme.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The Gap Between Thesis And Charts<\/h2>\n

The argument rests on Bitcoin behaving more like gold over time. Right now, it isn\u2019t. Gold struck a record high above $5,327 per ounce in late January and remains within 2.2% of that level.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin, by contrast, has been sliding. It\u2019s down sharply from its highs, even as the macroeconomic conditions \u2014 debt concerns, inflation uncertainty, geopolitical friction \u2014 that typically lift gold have remained very much in play.<\/p>\n

Research out of NYDIG<\/a> addressed this gap directly in early March. Bitcoin does not appear to be getting priced as a macro hedge, a sovereign risk hedge, or an inflation trade, according to the firm\u2019s global head of research.<\/p>\n

That disconnect explains the frustration around Bitcoin\u2019s failure to track gold despite the \u201cdigital gold\u201d label that has followed it for years, NYDIG said.<\/p>\n

Dalio\u2019s Pushback<\/p>\n

Dalio added his voice to the skeptics\u2019 side<\/a> earlier this month, arguing that gold remains a far stronger long-term store of value.<\/p>\n

His reasoning: central banks are buying gold, not Bitcoin. And Bitcoin, he said, trades less like a commodity hedge and more like a tech stock \u2014 something that follows risk appetite rather than countering it.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin & Iran-US War<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s recent price action tells the story plainly. A US-Israeli military strike on Iran<\/a> in late February triggered over $300 million in crypto liquidations, pushing Bitcoin lower before a partial recovery followed signals that the conflict could be winding down.<\/p>\n

It moved with risk appetite, not against it \u2014 which is exactly the behavior Dalio and others point to when they argue Bitcoin still has a long way to go before it earns the gold comparison.<\/p>\n

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Central banks aren\u2019t buying it. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio doesn\u2019t trust it as a safe haven. And Bitcoin is trading 44% below its October peak while gold sits near all-time highs. That\u2019s the backdrop against which Bitwise Asset Management\u2019s chief investment officer is making the case that Bitcoin could still reach $1 million a coin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37839,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-37838","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin"},"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin Down 44% From Its Peak, But Bitwise Still Sees A Path To $1 Million - Cryptomag<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=37838\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin Down 44% From Its Peak, But Bitwise Still Sees A Path To $1 Million - Cryptomag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Central banks aren\u2019t buying it. 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