{"id":37621,"date":"2026-03-09T08:30:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T08:30:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=37621"},"modified":"2026-03-09T08:30:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T08:30:47","slug":"43-of-bitcoin-supply-is-in-loss-as-market-nears-bear-territory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=37621","title":{"rendered":"43% of Bitcoin Supply Is In Loss As Market Nears Bear Territory"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A growing share of Bitcoin supply has slipped underwater, with CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost arguing that the market is now sitting much closer to historical bear-phase conditions than to a confirmed bull trend. His latest charts show 43% of Bitcoin supply held in UTXOs is currently in loss, leaving just 57% in profit.<\/p>\n<p>Darkfost is <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Darkfost_Coc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">looking<\/a> at the distribution of supply across Bitcoin\u2019s unspent transaction outputs, a way of tracking how much coin supply is sitting above or below cost basis. In his reading, that metric has reached a zone that has historically marked the boundary between advancing bull markets and broader corrections.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRoughly one out of two investors is currently at a loss. More precisely, this refers to the supply held within each UTXO on Bitcoin. At the moment, 43% of that supply is in loss,\u201d he wrote on X. He added that \u201chistorically, as the histogram shows, we usually see around 75% of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/bitcoin-news\/bitcoin-supply-in-profit-stalls-at-71-still-not-enough-for-a-sustainable-recovery\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">supply in profit<\/a>,\u201d describing that level as a \u201crough boundary between a bull trend and a market correction.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-886288\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/HC539zVXsAERoEy.jpg?resize=1024%2C576\" alt=\"Bitcoin percent supply in profit\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p>\n<p>That framing is central to the thesis. When the share of supply in profit rises back above roughly 75%, Darkfost said, bull trends have typically \u201cconfirmed and accelerated.\u201d When more supply starts falling into loss, the opposite tends to happen: corrections deepen, confidence weakens and the market begins to resemble prior bear-market structures. With Bitcoin now at 57% supply in profit, he said conditions look \u201ccloser to those seen during deep bear market phases.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Still, he did not present the current setup as a one-way collapse. Darkfost said the market is showing signs of stabilization, which he linked to the current consolidation phase. But he also warned that the process may not be finished. \u201cIt is still possible that the market moves lower in order to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/bitcoin-news\/bitcoin-reclaims-97k-as-long-term-holders-supply-stays-locked\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">shake out LTHs<\/a> further and push the share of supply in loss toward around 45%, a level that has been reached during previous bear markets,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n<h2>Macro Backdrop Weighs On Bitcoin<\/h2>\n<p>His second chart ties that on-chain deterioration to a macro backdrop that has become less supportive for risk assets. As tensions around the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/xrp-news\/xrps-moment-strait-of-hormuz\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener \">Strait of Hormuz<\/a> intensified, Darkfost argued, oil\u2019s rally has added another layer of pressure to Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSince the beginning of the year, oil has gained more than 60%, a dramatic increase reflecting market concerns over the geopolitical situation,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThis is not surprising, given that the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global daily oil exports and nearly 35% of oil transported by sea. Any incident that blocks the strait or disrupts transit therefore has an immediate impact on oil prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-886289\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/HC64edlWUAAweLk.jpg?resize=1024%2C576\" alt=\"Bitcoin vs. Brent Crude Oil\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p>\n<p>He extended that argument beyond energy markets. Higher oil prices, he said, feed directly into inflation expectations and broader financial-market stress, a combination that has historically not favored speculative assets. \u201cFor a volatile and risky asset like Bitcoin, this type of environment is unfavorable,\u201d Darkfost wrote. \u201cHistorically, periods when oil prices regain strength often coincide with BTC end-of-cycle phases. These moments also signal geopolitical tensions, which are not conducive to risk-taking or exposure to more speculative assets.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Taken together, the two charts sketch a market that is not yet definitively in a bear trend but is drifting toward a zone where that label becomes harder to dismiss. The immediate question is whether Bitcoin can rebuild the share of supply back into profit and reclaim the historical 75% threshold, or whether macro stress and further long-term-holder selling push the market deeper into loss territory first.<\/p>\n<p>At press time, BTC traded at $67,730.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-886291\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/BTCUSDT_2026-03-09_09-24-01.png?resize=1024%2C502\" alt=\"Bitcoin price chart\" width=\"1024\" height=\"502\" \/><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A growing share of Bitcoin supply has slipped underwater, with CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost arguing that the market is now sitting much closer to historical bear-phase conditions than to a confirmed bull trend. His latest charts show 43% of Bitcoin supply held in UTXOs is currently in loss, leaving just 57% in profit. Darkfost is looking [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37622,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-37621","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>43% of Bitcoin Supply Is In Loss As Market Nears Bear Territory - Cryptomag<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptomag.finance\/?p=37621\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"43% of Bitcoin Supply Is In Loss As Market Nears Bear Territory - Cryptomag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A growing share of Bitcoin supply has slipped underwater, with CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost arguing that the market is now sitting much closer to historical bear-phase conditions than to a confirmed bull trend. His latest charts show 43% of Bitcoin supply held in UTXOs is currently in loss, leaving just 57% in profit. 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