It’s still all about the U.S. dollar this week as the monthly close and options expiry loom for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) volatility edged higher during Sept. 26 as the Wall Street open avoided significant losses.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Monthly close tipped to shake up BTC price
The pair was expected to break out of its narrow trading range in the short term, having consolidated since Sept. 22.
For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, a tap of the area at the top of the range should signal acontinuation higher.
“Theory still stands for Bitcoin,” he told Twitter followers on the day.
“Crucial area at $18.6K holds for support, which we’ve been testing multiple times. Another test of the $19.4K–19.5K area (which we’ll be doing soon) is, most likely, giving a breakout to the upside. I’m targeting $20K and $22.5K.”
On-chain analytics resource Material Indicators agreed on volatility returning.
“BTC is trading in a tight range. Volatility will increase as the week progresses toward the Monthly Close, which coincides with Monthly and Quarterly Options expiry,” it wrote in a Twitter thread on the current state of the market.
“If bulls can manage a green M close above $20k, technical resistance is at the key MAs.”
Eyeing a longer-term range, meanwhile, fellow trader and analyst Josh Rager suggested that an optimistic scenario could see BTC/USD echo its growth from the first half of 2019.
“Uncertain if a bottom is in for Bitcoin but if $BTC price starts making its way back up to $24k+, I’ll certainly be paying attention,” he tweeted.
“Not saying that history will repeat but April ’19 took most people by surprise.”
Rager acknowledged that the macroeconomic environment this year was “different” from 2019.
BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass
Dollar strength sees best ever year
On the macro topic, United States equities stabilized at the Sept. 26 Wall Street open, helping highly-correlated crypto to avoid downside volatility.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were down 0.35% and 0.65% on the day, respectively.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) nonetheless looked primed to attack its latest twenty-year highs, having retraced only modestly after reaching 114.52 — its highest since May that year.
2022 has marked the best year ever for DXY, now up over 18% since Jan. 1.
“The 52-week percent change (lower-bound) is +21.3%, the highest rate of change since Q2 2015,” Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, noted in part of a tweet on the day.
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-month candle chart. Source: TradingView“The trend will stabilize & the RoC will normalize, but that doesn’t necessitate a decline in the $DXY.”
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